‘Wicked: For Good’ projected to open with $115M

Universal’s highly anticipated sequel Wicked: For Good is projected to open with $115 million to $120 million domestically during its November 21 Thanksgiving weekend debut, according to tracking data from leading market research firm NRGimdb.
The projections would match or exceed the first Wicked film’s $112.5 million opening from last November, and would rank as the fifth-highest opening weekend of 2025 behind A Minecraft Movie, Lilo & Stitch, Superman, and The Fantastic Four: First Stepsdeadline.
Presales for the Jon M. Chu-directed sequel are pacing ahead of the original film, which became the highest-grossing Broadway musical adaptation ever with $473.2 million domestically and $756.4 million worldwideimdb.
The strong projections offer relief for theater owners following October 2025’s disastrous box office performance, which is expected to total just $425 million—the worst October in 27 years, excluding the pandemic-affected 2020slashfilm.
Wicked: For Good will face competition from Disney’s Zootopia 2, which opens November 26 with projections of $95 million to $110 million for its three-day debutmickeyblog.

Wicked: For Good Poised to Break Musical Records with $115 Million Thanksgiving Opening

Universal’s highly anticipated sequel “Wicked: For Good” is tracking to open with a bewitching $115 million domestically during its November 21 Thanksgiving weekend debut, according to early box office projections from leading market research firm NRG. Industry insiders suggest the Jon M. Chu-directed musical could potentially reach or exceed $120 million, setting a new record for Broadway musical adaptations.imdb

The projections would put the sequel on par with its predecessor, which opened to $112.5 million last November and ultimately grossed nearly $750 million worldwide. If “Wicked: For Good” hits the $115 million mark, it would rank as the fifth highest-grossing opening weekend of 2025, behind “A Minecraft Movie” ($162.6 million), “Lilo & Stitch” ($146 million), “Superman” ($125 million), and “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” ($117.6 million).deadline

Industry Eyes November Relief After October Disaster

The strong projections come as welcome news for exhibitors following October 2025’s catastrophic performance. Domestic box office revenue for the month is expected to total just $425 million, marking the worst October showing in 27 years, excluding the pandemic-affected 2020. The dramatic downturn has been attributed to a scarcity of quality releases and the failure of major titles like “Tron: Ares” to connect with audiences.slashfilm

“Wicked: For Good” faces competition from Disney’s “Zootopia 2,” which opens November 26 with tracking estimates of $95-110 million for its three-day debut. However, the musical sequel benefits from strong pre-sales that are reportedly outpacing the original film. The sequel reunites stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, with both actresses expected to be significant contenders in the upcoming Oscar race.mickeyblog

Setting New Musical Benchmarks

The current record for a Broadway musical adaptation belongs to the first “Wicked,” which became the highest-grossing film adaptation of a stage musical with $473.2 million domestically. The original film’s success demonstrated the enduring power of the “Wicked” brand, earning an A CinemaScore and maintaining 100% capacity at Broadway’s Gershwin Theatre throughout its theatrical run.deadline

With its production budget matching the first film at $150 million, excluding marketing costs, “Wicked: For Good” represents Universal’s continued investment in the musical genre. The sequel’s potential success could further solidify the studio’s dominance in bringing Broadway properties to the big screen, continuing Universal’s nearly century-long tradition of movie musicals.forbes