- ICBC announced June 25 it will cease individual precious metals trading by July 24, joining other major Chinese banks restricting retail speculation, according to Bloomberg.bitget +1
- Gold dropped to $3,972 per ounce on Wednesday after the Fed under new Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a possible rate hike later this year, per Reuters.reuters
- Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold target to $4,900, while JPMorgan held at $6,000, creating a wide Wall Street divergence.goldsilver
Hawkish Fed Under Warsh Sparks Gold Price Volatility and Analyst Downgrades
Gold prices breached the psychologically critical $4,000-per-ounce level this week for the first time since November 2025, as the Federal Reserve's hawkish posture under new Chairman Kevin Warsh continues to reshape the precious metals landscape. The selloff has triggered analyst downgrades, diverging Wall Street forecasts, and emergency measures by major Chinese banks to limit retail exposure.
A New Fed Regime Pressures Gold
Spot gold fell to $3,972 per ounce on Wednesday, June 24, according to Reuters, its first sustained move below the $4,000 threshold in seven months. The decline accelerated after the Fed's June 17 policy meeting — Warsh's first as chairman — where officials signaled a potential rate hike later this year to combat inflation fueled by the ongoing conflict with Iran.beincrypto +2
Warsh, who took the oath of office on May 22 after Senate confirmation, has declared a commitment to "regime change" at the central bank, abandoning forward guidance and emphasizing price stability. Markets now see a more than 70 percent chance of a rate hike by September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The stronger dollar and rising real yields that accompany tightening expectations have eroded demand for non-yielding gold, which has fallen more than $1,500 from its all-time high of $5,594.82 reached in late January.cnn +4
Wall Street's Bullish Consensus Fractures
The hawkish shift has forced major banks to recalibrate. Bank of America, which in January projected gold would reach $6,000 per ounce by spring, acknowledged in a June 22 note that "hitting our $6,000/oz target looks unlikely for now," citing the shift from expected rate cuts to rate hikes as reducing gold's upside potential by roughly 50 percent.kitco
Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 target from $5,400 to $4,900 on June 19, no longer expecting any Fed rate cut this year. JPMorgan has maintained its more bullish $6,000 year-end target, creating a $1,100 gap between the two banks' forecasts — among the widest divergences in recent memory. ING also trimmed its forecasts, now expecting gold to average $4,300 in the third quarter.reuters +3
Chinese Banks Curb Retail Gold Trading
In China, major state-owned banks moved this week to shut down retail precious metals trading services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced on June 25 that it will fully cease individual precious metals trading on July 24, giving customers a month to wind down positions. Postal Savings Bank of China, Ping An Bank, and China Guangfa Bank have adopted similar measures, according to Bloomberg. The Shanghai Futures Exchange also suspended silver futures trading, citing "abnormal market conditions".linkedin +2
The restrictions target leveraged speculative instruments rather than physical gold or ETF purchases, but they underscore regulators' concerns about retail investors facing losses in a volatile market that has swung nearly 29 percent from peak to trough in 2026 alone.beincrypto +1
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