FAO and WFP seek $202M as super El Niño threatens global food prices

Super El Niño Sparks Global Food Inflation Fears

A strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific is raising alarm across global commodity and financial markets, with forecasters warning the weather phenomenon could reach "super" intensity by late 2026 and inflict lasting damage on food production in some of the world's most vulnerable regions.

Wall Street Sounds the Alarm

In a note titled "Super El Niño: Famine Follows War?" published this month, Rory Green, TS Lombard's chief China economist, warned that the convergence of war-related disruptions to fertilizer markets and adverse weather could create "a perfect storm for global food prices." Green wrote that "El Niño raises temperatures and significantly exacerbates both drought and heavy rainfall. For global macro, it is an inflationary shock via the food price channel — a shock that will likely be compounded by existing war-related high fertilizer costs."oilprice

The note built on a UBS report published earlier in June warning that El Niño risks could send food inflation higher across Asia. Reuters reported that scenarios for this El Niño indicate price shocks of 10% to 50% across core commodities, with crops such as rice, palm oil, sugarcane, and coffee potentially seeing price spikes of 50% to 100%. Schroders warned that if past correlations hold, "a very strong El Niño would imply a doubling of global food prices from current levels over the next year or so."reuters +2

Moreton Capital Partners, a hedge fund launched in early 2026 by former Millennium Management traders Les Finemore and Al Fullerton, is targeting $1 billion for a global commodities fund that will trade across markets expected to be most affected.bloomberg +1

India Faces Mounting Pressure

India appears most exposed. The India Meteorological Department in late May revised its monsoon forecast downward to 90% of the Long Period Average rainfall for the June-September season — down from an earlier projection of 92% — and gave a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon. The Food and Agriculture Organization has identified India among the countries facing the highest drought risks to rainfed crops such as rice and maize during the kharif season.ndtv +3

TS Lombard's Green noted that "India is the most exposed to both growth and inflation risks," citing the threat to agricultural incomes, rural demand, and food prices. The Reserve Bank of India has already revised its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2027 upward to 5.1% from 4.6%, while cutting its GDP growth outlook to 6.6%.oilprice

A Convergence of Risks

The World Meteorological Organization puts the likelihood of El Niño during June-August 2026 at 80%, with a more than 90% chance it will persist through early 2027. NOAA data shows a 63% probability of a "very strong" event — with ocean temperature anomalies exceeding 2.0°C — developing between November 2026 and January 2027. The World Economic Forum has described the approaching event as "more than a climate event" — a potential "systemic shock."weforum +1

The FAO and World Food Programme have launched a joint anticipatory action appeal seeking $202 million to protect 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries.ruralvoice