Carbon removal must quadruple by 2050 to meet 1.5C goal, report finds

The third State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report says global CDR must rise from 2.2 to 8.75 billion tonnes of CO2 per year by 2050.carbonbrief
Nearly all current removal comes from tree planting; novel methods like direct air capture account for just 2 million tonnes annually.carbonbrief
Microsoft ↗0.13% alone bought 82% of novel CDR credits, and a 10-year emissions delay would require removing 150 billion extra tonnes.stateofcdr

Global Carbon Removal Efforts Face 5 Billion Tonne Shortfall by 2050, New Report Warns

The world’s carbon dioxide removal efforts will fall more than 5 billion tonnes short of what is needed annually by 2050 to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming target, according to a sweeping scientific assessment released on June 2 by an international team of more than 50 researchers.carbonbrief

The third edition of the State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report finds that current country pledges amount to just 3.6 billion tonnes of CO2 removal per year by mid-century, while Paris-compatible scenarios require 8.75 billion tonnes per year — a gap of 5.2 billion tonnes that has widened since the previous edition as global emissions have continued to rise.stateofcdr

Almost All Removal Comes From Trees

The report paints a stark picture of the current landscape. Global CDR stands at 2.2 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, roughly 5% of gross global emissions, with 99.9% of that total coming from conventional land-based methods such as tree planting and ecosystem restoration. China, the United States, the European Union, Brazil and Russia are the largest contributors.carbonbrief

Novel approaches — including biochar, enhanced rock weathering and direct air carbon capture and storage — currently remove just 2 million tonnes of CO2 annually, a fraction of what is needed. While these technologies have been growing at about 40% per year, a rate the report compares to the early trajectory of solar energy, the authors say this pace is “insufficient for the scale-up required to meet the Paris temperature goal”.stateofcdr

Concentration Creates Vulnerability

The report highlights troubling concentration across the CDR system. Microsoft alone purchased 82% of novel CDR credits, while 85% of government demonstration funding is concentrated in the United States, Sweden and Denmark. Over two-thirds of conventional CDR in voluntary carbon markets originates in Latin America. The authors warn that this dependence on a handful of actors creates vulnerabilities, noting that recent U.S. climate policy changes and adjustments to Microsoft’s procurement pace have already tested the system’s resilience.stateofcdr

A Warning Against Substitution

The gap between pledges and what scenarios demand begins modestly — 0.3 billion tonnes in 2030 — but widens rapidly to 1.2 billion tonnes by 2035 before reaching 5.2 billion tonnes by 2050. Critically, a ten-year delay in cutting emissions would require removing at least an additional 150 billion tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere compared to the most ambitious reduction pathway.carbonbrief

The authors stress that emissions reductions must contribute at least 80% of the effort to reach net zero, with CDR filling the remainder. The period from 2026 to 2030, they write, is “critical for establishing CDR’s role in limiting climate damages”.stateofcdr