IDC forecasts record 13.9% smartphone shipment drop in 2026

IDC now projects 1.09 billion smartphone shipments in 2026 — the lowest since 2013 and the steepest annual decline on record.idc
The revised forecast, down from a 12.9% drop projected in February, adds the Strait of Hormuz blockade’s supply chain impact to the ongoing memory crisis.pcmag
Average selling prices are expected to hit a record $550, according to IDC, with emerging markets in the Middle East and Africa facing a 23% shipment decline.pcmag

IDC Revises Smartphone Shipment Forecast to Record 13.9% Drop as Iran Conflict Compounds Memory Crisis

The global smartphone market is headed for its worst year on record, research firm IDC said on Tuesday, revising its 2026 shipment forecast downward to a 13.9% year-over-year decline — worse than its February estimate of 12.9% — as the US-Iran conflict compounds an already severe memory chip shortage.idc

IDC now projects total shipments of 1.09 billion units, the lowest since 2013, calling the expected contraction “the steepest annual decline in smartphone history.”idc

Dual Pressures: Memory and War

The revision reflects the layering of geopolitical disruption atop the structural shortage that first drove IDC’s grim outlook earlier this year. In February, IDC attributed the initial 12.9% forecast entirely to a memory crisis caused by AI companies stockpiling chips for data centers, starving consumer electronics of supply.reuters

Now, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has added a second vector of pain. Rising oil prices are driving up transportation costs for components and finished goods across the supply chain. “Combined, these pressures are compelling vendors to reduce shipments, raise prices, and concentrate on higher price tiers — elevating smartphone ASP [average selling price] to a record $550, up $100 from last year,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC.icis

The $550 figure represents a further increase from the $523 average selling price IDC had projected in February.aphnetworks

Emerging Markets Hit Hardest

Emerging markets closest to the conflict zone face the steepest declines. In the Middle East and Africa, smartphone shipments are projected to fall 23%, according to IDC’s revised outlook. IDC also warned that the market’s troubles will not end this year, forecasting a continued 1.1% decline in 2027 rather than the recovery previously expected, with a meaningful rebound of 5.5% not arriving until 2028.pcmag

The revised forecast underscores how the convergence of AI-driven supply constraints and geopolitical instability is reshaping consumer technology markets in ways that neither factor alone would produce.