Bitwise exec warns Bitcoin could fall 20% to $48,000

Bitwise Europe’s research head said Bitcoin risks dropping to its 200-week moving average near $61,000, then to $56,000 or $48,000 in a worst case.benzinga
Galaxy Digital ↗3.51%‘s Alex Thorn projected a bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 by Q4 2026 as ETF outflows and AI rotation drain institutional demand.coinness
Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000, with Strategy ↘3.46%‘s first BTC sale since 2022 accelerating the selloff.cnbc

Bitwise Warns Bitcoin Could Drop to $48,000 in Worst-Case Scenario

Bitcoin faces the prospect of an additional 20% decline from current levels, with a worst-case “maximum pain” target near $48,000, according to André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, who outlined the bearish scenario at the BTC Prague conference this week.

Three Layers of Support

Speaking at the conference on Thursday, Dragosch identified three structural support levels beneath Bitcoin’s current price. The 200-week moving average sits near $61,000, the on-chain realized price rests around $56,000, and the long-term holder cost basis — representing the average acquisition price of committed investors — lies near $48,000. If all three levels fail to hold, Dragosch warned, the cryptocurrency could revisit territory not seen since August 2024.kucoin

The warning comes as Bitcoin has endured a bruising decline from its all-time high above $126,000 reached in October 2025, falling more than 45% from that peak. The selloff accelerated in early June after Strategy disclosed its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 — liquidating 32 BTC to fund preferred stock dividend obligations — which dented market confidence and triggered broad de-risking across crypto assets.cnbc

ETF Outflows and Institutional Retreat

Dragosch noted that recent selling pressure has been driven substantially by spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, creating an effect equivalent to approximately 50,000 BTC in sell pressure. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted 12 consecutive trading days of net outflows through early June as institutional capital rotated into AI-linked equities.youtube

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, offered a similarly bearish outlook, projecting that Bitcoin will form a bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime between now and the fourth quarter of 2026.coinness

A Broader Crypto Correction

The downturn has not spared the broader market. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, which surged to an all-time high of $75.48 on June 2, has since fallen more than 26% as the head-and-shoulders pattern on its chart threatens further losses. Bitcoin opened Friday at roughly $63,550, up 3.4% from Thursday’s open, following a brief rally tied to geopolitical developments.crypto

Prediction market participants on Kalshi estimate a 52% chance Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 before year-end, underscoring the fragile sentiment surrounding an asset that began 2026 trading near $86,000.cnbc