Goldman Sachs raises obesity drug forecast to $114B amid ADA data surge

ADA 2026 Highlights Booming Obesity Drug Competition

The American Diabetes Association’s 86th Scientific Sessions, held June 5–8 in New Orleans, served as a proving ground for the next wave of weight-loss medicines, with drugmakers large and small unveiling clinical data that underscore the intensifying race to dominate the obesity market.

Eli Lilly’s Retatrutide Sets New Bar

Eli Lilly reinforced its position atop the field with results from its triple-hormone receptor agonist retatrutide. In the TRIUMPH-1 study, participants lost approximately 28% of their body weight after 80 weeks — about 21 percentage points more than placebo — prompting RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh to describe Lilly’s position as one of “dominance.” The result approaches the efficacy of bariatric surgery, analysts noted.biopharmadive

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its global obesity drug market forecast to $114 billion by 2030, up from a prior estimate of $101 billion, citing faster adoption of oral GLP-1 pills and stronger international demand for Lilly’s Mounjaro.gurufocus

Oral GLP-1s Emerge as the Next Frontier

Structure Therapeutics presented data from its Phase 2 ACCESS program showing its once-daily pill aleniglipron achieved up to 16.2% body weight loss at 56 weeks with no apparent plateau, as published concurrently in Nature Medicine. The company received positive end-of-Phase 2 feedback from the FDA and plans to begin Phase 3 trials in the third quarter of 2026.sec

AstraZeneca also entered the fray, presenting Phase 2b results for its oral GLP-1 elecoglipron. In the VISTA trial, the highest dose achieved 10.5% weight loss at 26 weeks in patients with obesity, while the SOLSTICE trial in type 2 diabetes showed a 1.9% reduction in HbA1c. Both results, published simultaneously in The Lancet, support the company’s plans to advance into Phase 3.clinicaltrialsarena

Novo Nordisk Expands Wegovy’s Case and Deep Pipeline

Novo Nordisk presented post-hoc analyses showing semaglutide reduced asthma-related adverse events by 42% in patients with obesity and cardiovascular disease, while also lowering systolic blood pressure by an estimated 5.48 mmHg in those with uncontrolled hypertension. The company showcased Phase 2 data for zenagamtide (formerly amycretin), which achieved 14.6% weight loss at 36 weeks in type 2 diabetes patients, with Phase 3 set to begin in the second half of 2026.linkedin

Pfizer and Roche also presented data for their respective candidates berobenatide and enicepatide, with Roche’s dual injectable producing placebo-adjusted weight loss of 18% to 22.5%.biopharmadive

The meeting made clear that the obesity drug market is shifting rapidly from a two-company duopoly toward a crowded field — and that the oral pill format may reshape how patients access treatment for years to come.