Phillips 66 CEO says up to 100M barrels remain trapped near Hormuz

Phillips 66 CEO Warns Hormuz Supply Recovery Will Be Slow and Drawn Out

Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier cautioned on Tuesday that the recovery of crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will be a prolonged process, estimating that between 90 million and 100 million barrels of crude remain trapped in the strait despite a recent U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the waterway.

Speaking at the J.P. Morgan Energy, Power & Renewables Conference on June 23, Lashier said onshore storage tanks in the region are largely full, meaning production cannot ramp up appreciably until that capacity is freed. He described the clearing process as “long drawn out” and warned that temporary cushions such as releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and low inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, are not permanent solutions — suggesting a structural shift in the crude price floor.seekingalpha

A Familiar Warning From Lashier

The remarks extend a theme Lashier has pressed for months. In April, he told Yahoo Finance that a ceasefire alone would not fix oil markets, warning that the “tail effect” of the Hormuz disruption could persist for months or even years. At the time, he noted that roughly 12 million barrels per day were effectively trapped behind the blockade.yahoo

The Diplomacy-Versus-Physics Gap

The U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 15 extending their ceasefire by 60 days and pledging to fully reopen the strait without Iranian tolls. Oil prices fell sharply on the news, and shipping activity has begun to pick up — Bloomberg reported on June 22 that three Iranian supertankers carrying about 6 million barrels transited the strait.axios

Yet analysts have warned that physical supply recovery will lag market optimism. Reuters reported on June 18 that Kpler estimated approximately 93 million barrels of non-Iranian crude remained stranded in the Persian Gulf — a figure consistent with Lashier’s range. CNBC reported the same day that restoring sufficient supply to keep prices sustainably below $80 per barrel could take weeks to months.cnbc

Broader Supply Chain Strain

The Strait of Hormuz had been effectively closed since early March, when the U.S. and Israel launched military operations against Iran. Global shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd has estimated a minimum of six weeks to restore fully operational networks even after reopening, while academics at The Conversation projected a full return to pre-crisis balance could take nine to twelve months.reuters

Lashier’s comments reinforce the view that markets face a disconnect between diplomatic progress and the mechanics of clearing a backlog measured in the hundreds of millions of barrels — one that may keep crude prices elevated well into the second half of 2026.