European gas prices fall as Hormuz traffic hits war-era high

European natural gas benchmark prices dipped on Tuesday as ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz hit a post-war record of up to 42 crossings Monday, per tracking firms.ahram
The rebound follows the U.S.-Iran memorandum signed June 17 to reopen the strait, though traffic remains at roughly 42.5% of normal peacetime levels, according to AFP.ahram
Despite easing fears, European gas storage sits at about 45% of capacity — well below the five-year average — and Rabobank warns prices could surge by year-end.caliber

European Gas Prices Fall as Hormuz Supply Fears Ease

Benchmark European gas prices declined on Tuesday as growing vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and reassurances from Qatar’s energy minister eased immediate supply concerns, though analysts warned that the continent’s depleted storage levels remain a longer-term vulnerability.

Strait Traffic Picks Up, Qatar Calms Nerves

Dutch TTF natural gas futures fell to €41.70 per megawatt hour on Tuesday, down 0.45% from the previous session, while British wholesale gas dropped to 99.52 pence per therm, a decline of 0.42%. The moves extended a broader selloff that has seen European gas prices fall sharply since the United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17 to end their war and reopen the strait.tradingeconomics

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reached its highest level since the conflict began, with analytics platform Kpler recording at least 37 crossings on Monday — up from fewer than 10 per day before the June 14 framework agreement. Maritime intelligence firm Windward tracked 36 vessel transits on June 22, including continued LNG traffic from French- and Qatari-owned gas carriers.ahram

Separately, Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Saad al-Kaabi confirmed Monday that a deadly explosion at the Barzan local gas supply facility in the Ras Laffan complex on Sunday would not affect the country’s LNG exports. The blast, which killed 13 workers and injured 66, occurred during the restart of operations that had been halted since December 2025 for maintenance. Al-Kaabi called it “an accident and not sabotage or hostile in nature”.dawn

Low Storage Clouds the Outlook

Despite the improving supply picture, Europe’s gas storage deficit remains a source of concern. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe data cited by TASS on June 16, European underground storage facilities stood at just over 45% of capacity — 14.3 percentage points below the five-year average for that date and down from 53.8% a year earlier.caliber

Rabobank analysts have warned that the European market is underestimating the risk of tightening LNG supply. In a note published in late May, they forecast TTF prices to average around €60/MWh in the third quarter and rise toward €69 by year-end, arguing that reduced LNG inflows during the summer injection season could leave Europe entering winter with dangerously low inventories. The bank noted that injection rates would need to nearly double for Europe to meet the EU’s 90% storage fill target by November 1.edwealth

Cautious Reopening

While traffic is trending upward, the strait remains far from normal operations. The 37-42 crossings recorded Monday represent roughly 42.5% of peacetime levels, when 120 vessels would transit daily. The strait’s main central shipping channel remains mined and closed, forcing vessels to use narrower northern and southern routes. Iran briefly declared the strait closed again on Saturday, though the U.S. military said shipping continued to flow.nytimes

Oil prices also fell on Tuesday on the same easing supply concerns, with Brent crude declining around 0.6%.channelnewsasia