Over half of Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss

Over 50% of Bitcoin Supply Now Underwater as Analysts Debate Whether a Bottom Is Near

More than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is now held at an unrealized loss, a threshold that has historically coincided with major bear market bottoms and one that the cryptocurrency has not reached since the depths of the 2022 downturn following the FTX collapse.

A Rapid Deterioration

On-chain data from Glassnode shows approximately 10.46 million BTC — roughly 50% of the circulating supply — are currently held below their acquisition cost. The figure has surged from around 30% just a month ago, reflecting the speed of Bitcoin’s decline from levels above $80,000 earlier this year to recent lows near $61,000.euronews

The metric escalated quickly: by early March, CryptoQuant reported 9.09 million BTC, or 46% of supply, in loss when prices were near $66,500. By mid-May, roughly 8.2 million BTC were underwater according to CryptoQuant data cited by Cointelegraph. The June plunge — driven in part by long-term holders liquidating billions in holdings and regulatory uncertainty in Washington — pushed that number past the 50% mark.kucoin

Historical Parallels and Market Context

The 50% supply-in-loss threshold carries weight among on-chain analysts. Historically, it has only been reached near major bear market bottoms, as selling pressure from profitable holders becomes exhausted. Prior instances include November 2022 when Bitcoin bottomed near $15,479, December 2018 at $3,122, and January 2015 at $152.x

Analyst Ali Martinez has noted that when this proportion of the market is underwater, holders tend to sit tight rather than sell at a loss, which can reduce selling pressure and set conditions for recovery. A CryptoQuant report published in early June attributed the crash to a combination of geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy, and structural selling from crypto treasury firms. CNBC reported that prediction market participants on Kalshi estimated nearly an 80% probability that Bitcoin would fall below $60,000 by year-end.kucoin

No Confirmed Floor

Despite the historical parallels, analysts stress that a definitive bottom remains unconfirmed. Bitcoin has already briefly dipped below $60,000 in early June, and traders assign a 52% chance prices could fall below $50,000 this year. The newsletter Tagus Capital noted on June 10 that the current setup is “typically viewed as a late-cycle bear market signal,” with weaker holders exiting and long-term investors beginning to accumulate.cnbc

Bitcoin is down more than 30% since the start of 2026 and roughly 50% from its all-time high above $120,000 reached in October 2025.euronews