China’s aluminum exports surge in May to fill war-driven gap

China Aluminum Exports Surge to Fill Global War-Driven Shortfall

China’s aluminum exports jumped sharply in May as the world’s largest producer ramped up output to capture international sales left open after Iranian strikes shut down key Middle Eastern smelters and rallied prices to multi-year highs. The customs data, released Tuesday alongside broader May trade figures showing overall exports up 19.4% year-on-year, underscored how Chinese producers have aggressively expanded their share of global markets amid the worst supply disruption in the aluminum industry in decades.x

Middle East Supply Shock

The shortage traces back to late March, when Iranian missile and drone attacks struck Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi — a facility that produced 1.6 million tonnes of cast metal in 2025. EGA, the Middle East’s largest aluminum producer, said it could take up to a year to fully restore operations. Aluminium Bahrain was also hit, compounding the loss.reuters

The attacks, combined with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, severed a critical export route for the region’s producers, triggering force majeure declarations across the Gulf aluminum sector and sending London Metal Exchange aluminum prices above $3,600 per tonne — up more than 43% year-on-year.ft

Chinese Smelters Fill the Gap

With global inventories already near historic lows, buyers turned to China. According to industry data from SMM, China’s exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products hit 598,000 tonnes in April, up 15.4% year-on-year, setting a monthly record. Aluminum semi-finished product exports reached 535,700 tonnes in April, up 20.9% month-on-month, with May expected to climb further to around 600,000 tonnes.metal

Chinese enterprises reported export orders for June and July growing 15% to 20% month-on-month, with production schedules extended through July as overseas buyers scrambled to secure supply. Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America emerged as primary destinations, while shipments to the United States also remained elevated amid broader trade dynamics.metal

Outlook

The recovery in Chinese aluminum exports marks a reversal from 2025, when exports declined following the removal of a value-added tax rebate. Analysts now expect full-year 2026 aluminum semi-finished exports to reach 6 million to 6.35 million tonnes, surpassing 2024 levels, depending on whether the Strait of Hormuz blockade persists and whether Gulf production resumes on schedule. EGA has not provided a firm timeline for its smelter’s return to full capacity.wsj