Metals Focus forecasts record $4,920 gold average in 2026

Metals Focus Forecasts Gold to Hit Record $4,920 Average in 2026

Gold prices are expected to average a record $4,920 per ounce in 2026, according to Metals Focus, which launched its flagship Gold Focus 2026 report on Thursday in London and Toronto. The forecast from the UK-based precious metals consultancy reflects confidence that the bull market that powered gold to a 44% gain in its annual average price last year — its strongest performance since 1980 — will persist despite near-term headwinds from the Iran conflict and shifting interest-rate expectations.geomechanics

A Bull Market Interrupted

Gold set an all-time high above $5,400 in late January before falling back as the U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran that began February 28 disrupted markets. Rather than benefiting from a traditional war premium, gold has faced selling pressure during escalations because the conflict drives oil prices higher, fuels inflation, and blocks the interest-rate cuts that bullion needs to rally. As of early June, gold was trading near $4,480 per ounce — well below its January peak but still up more than 36% over the past 12 months.cbsnews

Metals Focus expressed confidence that once the Iran conflict subsides, gold will resume its upward trajectory. The consultancy pointed to persistent U.S. policy uncertainty, concerns over the dollar, elevated geopolitical risks, and stretched equity valuations as structural supports for the metal.x

Record Demand Reshaping the Market

The report highlighted a structural transformation in the gold market. Physical investment is expected to overtake jewellery as the largest demand segment in 2026, after exchange-traded products absorbed 803 tonnes of inflows in 2025 — the largest annual increase since 2020 — and bar and coin demand hit a 12-year high. Central bank net purchases, while down 22% from the prior year’s record, remained elevated at 848 tonnes in 2025.kitco

On the supply side, mine production rose to a record 3,817 tonnes in 2025 and is forecast to climb a further 2.4% to 3,907 tonnes this year, with recycling up 5.1%.geomechanics

Consensus Remains Bullish

The Metals Focus forecast sits within a broadly optimistic consensus. A Reuters poll of 31 analysts in April returned a median 2026 gold price of $4,916 per ounce. J.P. Morgan has projected gold pushing toward $5,000 by the fourth quarter, with $6,000 possible longer term, while Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank have also maintained bullish outlooks.jpmorgan

The question now is whether peace in the Middle East — which analysts say would ease oil prices, lower inflation, and unlock rate cuts — will provide the catalyst for gold’s next leg higher.goldsilver