WMO says El Nino developing, urges world to prepare

WMO Warns El Niño Returning With 80% Chance This Summer

The World Meteorological Organization declared on Tuesday that El Niño conditions are developing in the tropical Pacific, with an 80% likelihood of the phenomenon taking hold during June through August 2026 and a greater than 90% probability it will persist through at least November.wmo

A Warming World Braces for Impact

UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued an urgent call to action alongside the update. “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty,” Guterres said in a video statement. “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.”independent

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned governments and humanitarian agencies to prepare for what could be a strong event. “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” Saulo said, noting that the most recent El Niño in 2023–24 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures seen in 2024.miragenews

Building Momentum in the Pacific

The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific were approaching El Niño thresholds by late April to mid-May, fed by subsurface conditions exceeding 6°C above average — a substantial heat reservoir driving the surface warming. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center reported in May an 82% chance of El Niño emerging during May–July 2026 and a 96% chance of it persisting through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026–27. Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society assigned a 98% probability to El Niño during May–July.columbia

Record Heat Ahead

While uncertainty remains about peak strength, most forecast models suggest the event will be at least moderate and possibly strong. The WMO’s complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update projects above-normal temperatures over land in nearly all regions for the coming months. Scientists have warned the combination of El Niño and background greenhouse warming could push 2026 toward being the warmest or second-warmest year on record.wmo